R 061748Z AUG 15
MARADMIN 387/15
MSGID/GENADMIN/CG MCWL//
SUBJ/2015 MARINE CORPS SECURITY ENVIRONMENT FORECAST: FUTURES 2030-2045//
POC/P. S. KIRCHNER/LTCOL/FUTURES ASSESSMENT DIVISION/-/TEL: CML  703-784-5479/EMAIL: PATRICK.KIRCHNER@USMC.MIL//
RMKS/ 1. THE PURPOSE OF THIS MESSAGE IS TO PROVIDE BROADEST AWARENESS OF THE FUTURES DIRECTORATE’S PUBLICATION OF THE 2015 MARINE CORPS SECURITY ENVIRONMENT FORECAST (MCSEF).
2. THE 2015 MCSEF PROVIDES A CURRENT SNAPSHOT OF FUTURES DIRECTORATE’S CONTINUAL EXAMINATION OF THE DEEP FUTURE. CAPITALIZING ON STRATEGIC FORESIGHT TECHNIQUES, THE MCSEF EXAMINES GLOBAL PATTERNS AND TRENDS, DEVELOPS INSIGHTS ON THE CHARACTER OF FUTURE CONFLICT, AND OUTLINES VARIATIONS OF THE FUTURE SECURITY ENVIRONMENT. ANALYSIS OF PATTERNS AND TRENDS IN SEVEN CATEGORIES, INCLUDING DEMOGRAPHICS, TECHNOLOGY, RESOURCE COMPETITION, ENVIRONMENTAL STRESSES, GLOBALIZATION, GOVERNANCE, AND URBAN LITTORALS, ENABLES PROJECTION 15 TO 30 YEARS INTO THE FUTURE OF FOUR PLAUSIBLE WORLD FUTURES: A BASELINE FUTURE, TWO ALTERNATIVE FUTURES, AND A “PREFERRED” FUTURE.
3. THE MCSEF IS FUNDAMENTALLY A DOCUMENT FOR PLANNERS AND DECISION MAKERS. ITS PURPOSE IS NOT TO PREDICT THE FUTURE PRECISELY BUT TO EXAMINE AN ARRAY OF POSSIBILITIES TO BETTER PREPARE FOR THE COMPLEXITIES AND UNCERTAINTIES OF THE 21ST CENTURY. THE MCSEF AIMS TO IDENTIFY AND ANALYZE THE PRINCIPAL PATTERNS AND TRENDS SHAPING THE FUTURE SECURITY ENVIRONMENT; DESCRIBE AND ASSESS PLAUSIBLE FUTURE SECURITY ENVIRONMENTS; GENERATE IDEAS THAT INFORM THE DEVELOPMENT AND IMPLEMENTATION OF INSTITUTIONAL CONCEPTS, CAPABILITIES, AND REQUIREMENTS; OFFER RECOMMENDATIONS FOR SERVICE CONSIDERATION TO GUARD AGAINST STRATEGIC SURPRISE, SHAPE THE FUTURE FORCE, AND STIMULATE THOUGHT; AND ULTIMATELY INFORM SENIOR LEADERSHIP’S VISION OF THE FUTURE.
4. THE 2015 MCSEF IS AVAILABLE FOR DOWNLOAD AT: HTTP:(SLANT,SLANT)WWW.MCWL.MARINES.MIL/DIVISIONS/FUTURESASSESSMENT.ASPX
5. RELEASE AUTHORIZED BY BRIGADIER GENERAL J.D. ALFORD, COMMANDING GENERAL MARINE CORPS WARFIGHTING LABORATORY/DIRECTOR FUTURES DIRECTORATE, CDI/MCCDC, HEADQUARTERS, U.S. MARINE CORPS.//